Prices for food have risen significantly in the past 2 years (photo: freepik)
Wiesbaden – the inflation in Germany has dropped – whereby Show surveysthat citizens feel differently. Today, the Federal Statistical Office publishes the estimate for February – forecasts expect a stagnation of 2.3 percent price bullet compared to the previous year.
The service sector was in JanuaryAs in the previous months, the strongest inflation driver with 4 percent in the year. However, the costs of energy decreased (minus 1.6 percent), Essen increased 0.8 percent. The core rate without energy and food was 2.9 percent in January.
Unlike in Germany, the Inflation in the euro zone in January, by 0.1 to 2.5 percent. The harmonized consumer price index of the euro area is even higher for Germany, at 2.8 percent. At 1.4 percent, Denmark reported the lowest rate, Hungary the highest with 5.7 percent.
Inflation in the B2B business-inflation expectation of companies
Moderately in Germany, the prices at the company level have recently developed, which are considered forecasting signals for consumer fermentation. So they rose Producer prices in January at 0.5 and the Wholesale prices by 0.9 percent. The Import prices (December) increased by 2 percent.
However, many German companies continue to expect price increases, 19.4 percent by balance. Loud the survey of the Munich IFO Institute In February, more producing companies wanted to increase their prices than in the previous month, while fewer companies were intentional among the service providers.
Strong plus in real wages 2024 – poorer households at the advantage
Positive is: Inflation normalized in 2024, with 2.2 percent inflation in the year as a whole. On the other hand, wages rose by an average of 5.4 percent, which the bottom line is a strong increase in real wages: 3.1 percent mean the strongest real income plan since 2008.
In addition, inflation has been relaxed for poorer households. The shopping cart for couples with children and lives alone with small incomes were more expensive According to an IMK analysis only 1.7 percent in January. One reason: The high service inflation is rather higher income.
Consumer mood continues – central banker Nagel for inflation
Nevertheless, consumers remain unsettled: income expectations and acquisition tendency went back in February, but the savings tendency rose, like the current one GfK consumer climate shows. The uncertain political and economic situation as well as the inflation are called reasons.
Called “encouraging” Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel This week the prospects for the euro area. The German monetary authority considers the reaching of the 2 percent goal to be likely. “This would enable us to further reduce the key interest rates in the ECB council,” emphasized Nagel.
Inflation prospects of the KfW 2025-forecast ECB interest rate decision
Nagel still sees upstream – the high core rate without energy and food as well as the strong service inflation. Because of her, the researchers of the KfW-Bank have theirs Inflation forecast For 2025 now up to 2.4 percent. GDP goes back by 0.2 percent in 2025.
In view of the prospects of inflation and the weak euro boost, it is quite sure that The ECB decision-makers The key interest rates will reduce 0.25 percent again in the coming week. At the moment, the deposit rate for savers and loans is 2.75 percent.