How is the US labor market? (Photo: Freepik, Nunkung3529)
Washington – Trump and his customs hammer – markets and mood are deep in the red area. Does the US labor market report still fuel the lousy momentum? Today’s March numbers should not yet be shaped Trump, but the US economy has been cracking for a long time. Quo Vadis America?
Only 125,000 new jobs outside of agriculture – expect that Economists according to the fact set On average for the month of March. That would be less growth than the 151,000 jobs in the previous month of February and the January (125,000). The unemployment rate is expected to increase from 4.1 to 4.2 percent.
The momentum is just lost in the United States – that also shows that Number of vacancies. It was 7.56 million at the end of February, after 7.76 million one month before. Overall, the trend has declined, since the highest level of over 12 million in March 2022 after the Corona crisis.
Solid job growth in ADP report-Trump’s tariffs and the consequences
The ADP employment report was pleasantly surprised on Wednesday. The statistics of the wage service provider ADP recorded 155,000 new jobs in the private sector for March – The forecasts were only 105,000. The February value was corrected from 77,000 to 84,000.
“Despite political uncertainty and pessimistic consumer, the bottom line is that the numbers for March were good for the economy and employer of all sizes – if not necessarily of all industries -“, ​​”, Commented ADP chief economist Nela Richardson the numbers.
Many experts are certain: Trump’s politics will make the goods more expensive for US citizens and the economy brakes. So the Analyst James Knightley from Ing-Bank a stronger increase in inflation and decreasing consumer joy as a result of tariffs and reduced government spending.
Consumer prices: forecasts raised – misery index at a glance
The US inflation (Consumer Price Index) is still dropped in Februaryfrom 3 to 2.8 percent in the year. But that was before Trump. The Fear of inflation The consumer has now gone high, and the US Federal Reserve has increased its forecast from 2.5 to 2.7 percent for 2025.
Alarm signals also sends The misery index – The key figure forms from the inflation rate and the unemployment rate and is intended to measure the economic state of the country. With 6.9 points, the index is clearly among the corona, but also well above the pre-corona period.
Zwickmühle for the Federal Reserve – offer shock through tariffs
Is the so -called stagflation threatened now? High inflation, at the same time stimulus – that is a dreaded scenario for economies. Because the central bank would then be in the Zwickmühle: it would actually have to reduce interest rates for more growth, but this is poison for consumer prices.
The hard economic data are strong, the soft data – such as consumer confidence – are currently breathing, Austan Goolsbee found this week. The President of the Fed Chicago warned of an offer shock through Trump’s tariffs through which people could panic.
Current status of the US control interest-forecast of the Fedwatch Tools
With the range of 425 to 450 basis points is currently the US – The Fed has been stable for the 3 session. The economic outlook became more unsure, the report said. Previously, the US currency keepers had reduced the interest of 1 percent 3 times since September.
What will the Fed do now? The Fedwatch tool Estimates the chance for unchanged interest after the meeting on May 7th to 72.6 percent. 16.2 percent is likely that the key interest rate is still 4.25 to 4.5 percent after the meeting on June 18. (As of April 3, 5.40 p.m. CEST)