Value-Investing returns: traditional industries benefit from rising interest rates and changing economic policy-the return to the substance. (Photo: Freepik)
Value stocks were once considered the supreme supreme discipline of the stock exchange-but in the intoxication of the tech bubble the strategy of a fairy tale from old textbooks was called. Now the signs are increasing that the strategy of “buying Ramsch to cent amounts” returns. This is not only shown by the courses, but also the results of the best global equity funds of the past 5 years. Does a historical revival of value philosophy face us? And could Donald Trump, the master of trade wars, pave the way for the Value disciples to the triumphal march?
The birth of a legend: Graham’s legacy
It started with a man who understood the stock exchange as a psychological battlefield: Benjamin Graham, the father of value investing. In the ruins of the global economic crisis of the 1930s, he developed a philosophy that was as simple as revolutionary: “Buy a dollar for $ 50 cents.”
His student Warren Buffett later refined the apprenticeship as an art form by not only looking for balance sheet figures, but also “economic castle ditches” – companies with indestructible competitive advantages. But the core remained: Value-Investing is the search for the contradiction between market hysteria and business reality. A game against human nature, which demands discipline and an iron stomach.
Key figures: The Bible of the Value disciples
Anyone who hunted for value shares searches balance sheets like an archaeologist forgotten ruins. The sacred trinity of the key figures is: Course-profit ratio (KGV), course book value ratio (KBV) and Dividend yield. A KGV below the industry average signals that the market distrusts the company – often wrong. A KBV under 1 means that the shareholders theoretically buy the company cheaper than its machines, real estate and inventory are worth. And a high dividend yield is not just a cash flow gift, but an indication that management takes shareholders seriously.
But be careful: these numbers are not a free ticket. As Buffett warns: “A bad company is not a bargain – no matter how cheap it is.”
Industry: The ghost cities of capitalism
Value shares are not hidden in the Silicon Valley of the world, but in the industrial parks of Rust Belt, in the back office of the big banks or on the oily support platforms of the North Sea.
Banks such as Deutsche Bank or Commerzbank – scanned for years of negative interest rates and rage of regulation – hoard equity rates of over 13 percent, but the market does not trust them.
Energy corporations such as Exxonmobil or Shell, which were recently demonized as climate offices, rinse a billion-cash flow thanks to the oil price collateral protection of the Ukraine crisis-and still act with KBVs of less than 1.5.
Industrialists such as Siemens or General Electric, once flagships of globalization, fight with supply chains chaos-but their patents and customer trunks are worth gold. These industries were long considered an antitheater to the Tech stage: Unsexy, unloved, but full of hidden treasures.
The lost decade: How the Tech Monster Value killed
The years 2010 to 2020 will go down in history as a dark age of value investing. While the Nasdaq exploded by 500 percent, dumpled value indices such as shipwrecked in a doldrum. A toxic mix of zero interest rate, quantitative Easing and the hybris of the tech elites was to blame. Companies like Tesla, which wrote red numbers for years, were traded with ratings beyond the 1,000-fold profits-a mockery of every Graham logic.
The Faang shares (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) staged as immortal growth gods, while value companies were stamped as fossils of the “Old Economy”. However, as always in stock market history, the euphoria has become a trap: since 2022, many tech titles have been corrected by 50 to 70 percent, while value shares such as BP or Citigroup pulled away quietly.
In 2023, thanks to the AI euphoria, it went back in the opposite direction-but the returns of the top value funds of the past 5 years reveal a different story.
The perfect comeback scenario: interest, inflation-and Trump
3 factors could cement the value Renaissance:
- The turning point: With key interest rates of 5 percent and more in the USA, future believers lose their spells. Every dollar profit in distant years is suddenly less worth less. Value companies with today’s cash flows-whether oil companies or suppliers-become a safe bank.
- The inflation: Rising prices drive the sales of raw material producers and industrial companies, while Tech companies moan under Margendruck and expensive loans.
- Trump’s customs policy: His plan for 10 percent universal toll plus extracölle depending on the country would be a quake. Protectionism protects domestic industries-often value heavy weights from sectors such as steel (nucor), chemistry (BASF) or car (Ford). At the same time, trade wars could further heat inflation, which favors value sectors with “hard” assets.
A prime example: the US steel manufacturer Cleveland-Cliffs Has its profit tenfold since 2022 thanks to high steel prices and reshoring trends-but it is still being traded with a KGV of 5. For value disciples, this is not a contradiction, but the essence of the strategy: markets need time to regret their ignorance.
Cashflow beats AI: The champions among the global funds
The numbers speak a clear language: the top performers over 5 years are not tech hipsters, but value purists. The list of winners reads like a Who-IS-WHO of the Value Elite Fund that invested in forgotten industries, undervalued books and cash flow machines:
- Long Term Investment Fund (SIA) Classic (plus 157.47 percent): The fund mainly relies on European consumer goods, health and industry-and proves that even “boring” value shares can deliver explosive returns.
- Ninety One Global Equity Fund (plus 145.66 percent): Here the mantra rules the “Margin of Safety”. The fund fishes in industrialized nations and emerging countries by company with stable balance sheets and chronic undervaluation.
- Fidelity Global Industrials (plus 145.32 percent): Not a pure value fund, but proof that the Old Economy rocks. The fund focuses on mechanical engineers, logistics and infrastructure – sectors that benefit from reshoring and inflation.
- Quantex Global Value (plus 144.75 percent): A quantitative approach that finds pearls hidden in Canada and Venezuela even in Canada and Venezuela after shares with low KGV, high dividends and strong cash flows.
- MfS Contrarian Value Fund (plus 141.96 percent): As the name says: Here you swim against the electricity. The fund buys what the market hates-from US regional banks to British insurers.
These funds are not a coincidence, but a symptom of a paradigm shift. While Tech returned briefly in 2023, the 5-year charts show: Value is not a discontinued model, but a cyclical phenomenon-and the cycles are turning.
The best global equity funds over 5 years at a glance:
Source: FWW / Stand of the data: April 7, 2025
Conclusion: The return of the Stock Exchange-Graham would smile
The stock exchange is a place of extremes: after each hype, disillusionment follows, after each bladder the return to the basics. Value-Investing is not a strategy for tictok generations looking for the next hype-it is art to find diamonds in ruins. The signs are good: higher interest rates disenchant the tech overflowers, inflation strengthens the “old economy”, and Trump’s customs policy could give the value sectors a political turbo.
But be careful: Value-Investing is not a sure-fire success. Anyone who invests in banks or steelworks today bets on a staying power-and that the markets will confirm Graham’s old wisdom again at some point: “In the long run, the market is a scales. The scale seems to be turning. The question is not whether value comes back – but how explosive.
The convergence from the turning point, inflationary storm winches and protectionist experiments creates a scenario in which undervalued shares become a safety anchor. Trump’s tariffs may be economically controversial, but for value sectors they are a fire accelerator-they force the market to reflect on companies that produce real goods. At the same time, the current volatility exposes the weaknesses of overpriced growth values, while value shares with their down-to-earth key figures shine as a bulwark against the unpredictability of the markets.
In the end, it’s more than a return: it is a philosophical clash between speculation and substance. Value-Investing asks us to distrust the noise of the stock exchange-and instead read in the silence of the balance sheets. In a world that is characterized by AI hysteria and debt mountains, this strategy could not only celebrate a comeback, but also become a necessary antidote. Graham’s spirit is back – and this time he not only wears a security margin, but also a plan for the era of disenchantment.
Disclaimer:
No investment advice. No call to buy or sell securities.