Real estate purchase: Own life plans are the best yardstick (Photo: Freepik, Annebel146)
Berlin/Munich/Lübeck – upward rally stopped! The situation in building finance has been a bit relaxed since the end of January, real estate loans have become cheaper. But there are upward risks like Trump’s tariffs and global crises. What can real estate buyers and clients expect now?
February relaxation looks like this: drklein.de Prepairs the current top interest rate for 10-year loan at 3.03 percent (effective annual interest). Slightly lower with 2.90 percent check24.deduring the average interest rate at interhyp.de 3.39 percent is. (As of 5 p.m.).
Credit demand in late 2024 weaker – real estate market started
December brought a slight damper for that Volume of the mortgage loan – After the loan demand 2024 had recovered with the falling interest. But 17 billion euros are still an increase of 40 percent in the year. 2024 exceeded 23 percent in 2023.
No question: In 2024 the real estate market was woken up again, this is also shown by the investments. According to enormously declining transactions 2022 and 2023, the real estate investment market 2024 has grown again (plus 19 percent), like that Trend barometer of the Economic Consulting EY shows.
Forecast of the Interhyp panel-price development in real estate
The construction interest should remain at the current level in the next few weeks – forecast 86 percent of the Experts of the Interhyp bankruptcy panel. By spring, the majority will see interest rates at 3 to 3.5 percent for 10-year loans, and rising towards 4 percent by the end of the year.
The price trend in houses and apartments is moderately up: the portal Immowelt.de Hands the increase in the offer for real estate prices in Germany in 2024 with 2.9 percent. According to Greix index The recovery has flattened out in the 4th quarter, the prices moved sideways.
Kaufmarkt vs. Rental market – Interest forecast European Central Bank
The comparison rent vs. purchase at IW living index: According to this, the purchase prices stagnated in the 4th quarter of 2024 compared to the last 3 months 2023. On the other hand, the new contract rents increased 4.7 percent in the same period. Rental apartments are missing in many regions.
If it is based on the central bank forecasts, the interest prospects in 2025 are positive: after the last interest rate of the European Central Bank (ECB) At the end of January on an deposit rate of 2.75 percent, observers and markets expect further steps of 0.5 to 0.75 percent by the end of the year.
Building interest on returns for government bonds – uncertain markets
But the reference for German building interest rates are 10-year-old federal bonds – Because the banks secure their real estate loans with so -called deposit letters, the return of which are in parallel with those of the German government bonds. They rose steeply in December and have been going back since the end of January.
In the ups and downs, the current uncertainty of the markets is also reflected says Florian PfaffingerExpert of Dr. Small. Many actors had screwed down their expectations regarding the ECB interest rate reductions, which led to rising returns in federal bonds.
Do not speculate on interest development – KfW funding programs
“Interest betting does not make sense,” warns Expert Mirjam Mohr From the Interhyp board. Buyers should better make their own life planning and a suitable financing structure. “It is important that the financing concept fits life and not the other way around.”
The KfW funding bank helps real estate buyers and house builders with 2 programs: “Promotion of residential ownership for families” offers discounted loans for families with children, “Young buys old” Supports families with children in the acquisition of residential ownership in need of renovation.