Worldwide oil demand: Goldman Sachs remains optimistic (Photo: Freepik, AH7432435)
The oil price is on the update, while Donald Trump has prescribed a fossil offensive in the US energy industry. The sector offers opportunities for investors – but only with the right strategy. 2 ETFs show how the volatility of the market can be tamed or exploited.
Trump is boosting the oil machine – market remains a mine field
“We will be a rich nation again – the liquid gold under our feet makes it possible,” Trump announced in his inaugural speech. His motto: “Drill, Baby, Drill”. Since the beginning of his second term, Donald Trump has been a clear line: fossil fuels are at the center of his economic policy, the US president is on record funding for oil and gas, a construction stop for new wind turbines and the relaxation of environmental conditions.
With Chris Wright, a hardliner in the oil industry, as a minister of energy, the government is promoting projects in sensitive protected areas and relies on fracking, pipelines and coal mining.
This policy has the potential to boost US oil production at short notice. Midstream companies in particular benefit from this that focus on transport, storage and marketing of raw materials. The strategy also carries risks. While US oil production could be booming at short notice, analysts warn of an oversupply that would subsequently press prices.
At the same time, the Chinese economic engine is stuttering – in the Middle Kingdom, which is considered the largest oil consumer. And geopolitical tensions – such as sanctions against Russia or the situation in the Middle East – also remain an uncertainty factor.
Worldwide oil demand: Goldman Sachs remains optimistic
Despite all the uncertainties, analysts assume that there is a persistently high demand for fossil fuels. The US investment bank Goldman Sachs predicts that global oil demand may continue to increase in the next 10 years. The reasons for this are economic growth in the emerging countries and the rising passenger volume, which could double by 2040.
The past year has been mixed for investors in the oil sector: the stocks of large oil and gas companies such as Exxonmobil or Chevron were lagging behind the performance of the broad stock market, such as the S&P 500. Many analysts also expect a volatile year for 2025. But optimists could be rewarded, because Trump’s energy policy offensive ensures movement.
Research strategies: Funds and ETFs as instruments for diversification
Forecast 2025: 3 scenarios and their consequences for investors
The future of the energy market depends on political and geopolitical factors. In the Best Case Scenario, Trump’s funding offensive drives up the transport volumes of midstream companies-the Alerian Midstream ETF benefits, even if the oil price falls to $ 65. In the risk scenario, the demand from China breaks down, which pulls the Ishares ETF down by 30 percent.
An oil shock due to an escalation in the Middle East could briefly drive the price to $ 100 – both ETFs would benefit before volatility strikes again. Investors should check both products against the background of their personal risk tendency and investment strategy.
Disclaimer:
No investment advice. No call to buy or sell securities.