In the euro area, the signs are on interest reduction. (Photo: Freepik, Okanakdeniz)
Frankfurt am Main-The US Federal Reserve Fed held his feet breastfeeding yesterday despite the pressure from Trump and did not change the key interest rate. Today, the colleagues from the European Central Bank are on the move: anything but an interest rate reduction by 0.25 percent would be a big surprise (2:15 p.m. CET).
In June 2024, the ECB lowered the first in this cycle after the increase in 2022 and 2023 Interest charges -A total of 4 times last year. At 3 percent, the deposit rate, which is important for savers, is now 3.15 percent of the main refinancing rate, with 3.4 percent of the top refinancing rate.
Euro control rose again-difference to the USA
The inflation goal of 2 percent had already broken the euro zone in September. From 1.7 percent it went up to 2.4 percent again in December. The price increase for services but also so -called basic effects due to declines in the comparison months favored the development.
One thing is clear: the USA and the euro area are on different paths when it comes to inflation. While the weak economy in Europe has also suppressed the price increase more, in Trump-America the inflation is significantly higher with 2.9 percent-and that is growing.
Risks for prices – currency authorities indicate interest reductions
But the euro zone also has to keep an eye on risks, such as rising energy and freight prices when international conflicts flare up. Trooped by Trump would probably slow down the euro economy and speak for low interest rates-but counter-duties could drive prices.
Many decision-makers in the ECB council, such as the central bank boss of France or Finland, have at the World Economic Forum in Davos Further interest reductions indicated. ECB President Christine Lagarde was optimistic in December to achieve the 2 percent goal of inflation at the end of 2025.
Lagarde summons independence – falling interest does not arrive
In allusion to Donald Trump’s attempted influence on the Federal Reserve showed itself The ECB boss this week concerned about new dangers for independence from central banks. Political influence can make the task of the central banks difficult and ensure stable prices.
What is striking: ECB interest rate cuts recently did not arrive at markets and consumers. This is how the bonds have risen in the euro zone. And the construction interest in Germany also goes up. One reason: increasing borrower interest in the United States in view of the political uncertainty.
Companies ask more loans-interest forecast for 2025
It also hooks with the business loans: Like the Current survey of the ECB showsthe banks of the euro area have tightened their guidelines for the awarding of loans to companies – the reason is higher risks. On the other hand, the institutes report an overall increased loan demand.
“The market participants have already priced in an extremely negative outlook for Europe on the credit and stock markets”, says Orla Garvey from the asset management Federated Hermes.
What’s next in 2025? Many observers like that Analysts from Goldman Sachs or Bank of America An interest rate of 0.25 percent also count at the March meeting. The markets bet on interest rate cuts by 0.5 to 0.75 percent by the middle of the year and 1 percent throughout 2025.