The signs in the euro area are up to inflation decline. (Photo: Freepik, Muraveev)
Luxembourg – Germany has a strong one in January Inflation decline surprised to 2.3 percent. Is the euro area moving today? Today the statistics authority Eurostat publishes the first estimate of the price trend for January (11 a.m. CET). Finally, the inflation had increased for 3 months in a row.
The inflation in the euro area brakes – at least that awaits this The forecasts: According to Factset estimate, prices in January are said to have increased by 2.2 percent in the year, after 2.4 percent in January. The core rate without energy, food and luxury foods therefore stagnates at 2.7 percent.
The price drivers in December – calculation of inflation
The price pressure in the euro area comes above all from the services: Here the costs were drawn in December 3.9 percent compared to the previous year. Food and luxury foods were also noticeable with a plus 2.7 percent. The energy sector remained a ray of hope with a 2 percent decline.
Important to know: many euro countries, including Germany, raise 2 consumer price indices. The national index – and the harmonized consumer price index (HVPI) using the European calculation method. The HVPI stagnated in Germany in January at 2.8 percent annual rate.
Price buoyancy in France and Spain – ECB lowers the interest
Other large euro countries report an increase for January: in France the overall inflation went up from 1.3 to 1.4 percent (HVPI: 1.8 percent). The inflation in Spain rose from 2.8 to 3 percent (HVPI: 2.9 percent) – whereby the core rate decreased from 2.6 to 2.4 percent.
The European Central Bank (ECB) expects falling inflation rates: the monetary authorities set last week The key interest rates Down again by 0.25 percent. Now the deposit rate is 2.75 percent. In 2025, inflation to the target value is likely to return 2 percent, according to the ECB.
Update of the shopping cart-forecast euro inflation 2025
With a certain fluctuation of euro inflation in the 1st half of 2025 Katharine does NeissChief economist at PGIM Fixed Income. For example, she points out that the January data is influenced by the annual update of the shopping cart weighting.
At the moment there is no doubt that the ECB will gradually lower interest rates. According to MorningStar.co.uk, the economist Martin Wolburg from Generali Investments, for example, expects that the euro leisure indicator is 1.75 percent after a number of steps at the end of 2025.