Customs could drive up inflation. (Photo: Freepik, Chandlervid85)
Wiesbaden – the inflation seemed on the right path towards 2 percent – but now dark clouds are moving up. The upward risks grow. The March data that the Federal Statistical Office publishes on Monday does not yet affect this. Experts expect one Stagnation at 2.3 percent.
In February Especially the inflation in the service sector was still dynamic, with 3.8 percent in the year. Food increased 2.4 percent, energy prices dropped by 1.8 percent. The core rate without energy and food decreased by 0.3 to 2.6 percent without energy and food.
Important: The EU countries raise 2 inflation values-the national and the harmonized (HVPI). The German HVPI inflation was 2.6 percent in February. For 2 EU countries there are already March numbers: In Spain, the HVPI fell by 0.7 to 2.2 percent, France stagnates at 0.9 percent.
Price pressure in the B2B business-debt package as an inflation risk
The prices at the company level are considered an early indicator for consumer reference. In February they climbed Producer prices at 0.7, the Wholesale prices by 1.6 percent in annual comparison. The Import prices (January), on the other hand, rose by 3.1 percent, which is above current inflation.
With the XXL debt package from Schwarz-Rot, there is now a veritable inflation risk. The greater the lack of skilled workers, the more the state demand for infrastructure and armaments will fizzle out in increasing inflation, Fears Jörg Krämer aboutChief economist of Commerzbank.
Lagarde: Inflation through Trump-Zölle-Euro-Euro-Finzinsen of the ECB
Trump’s tariffs could also raise inflation. Up to 0.5 percent price bullet Due to the trade war of the US President, the President of the European Central Bank Christine Lagarde considers it possible. It is questionable whether the expected growth plate is weakening at the same time.
What does that mean for interest? The ECB currency keepers have already reduced the key interest rates since June 2024. Currently the important one for savers is Standing rate 2.5 percent. The main refinancing rate is 2.55 and the top refinancing rate is 2.90 percent.
Central banker: Location complicated-forecast ECB interest rate decision
Trump’s trade policy makes further interest reductions more complicated, he says Belgian central bank President Pierre wishwho determines interest policy in the ECB council. “We may have to take a break into account,” said wish, even if he was not for it.
The markets are very confident that the ECB council meeting on April 17 is not that far. 80 to 85 percent is after reuter.com The chance that the monetary authorities will reduce the key interest rates again by 0.25 percent.