How does US control develop? (Photo: Freepik, Yakult)
Washington – Have Trump’s tariffs already left traces in the inflation report? Many expect that the lack of predictability has driven up trading prices. The fear of stagflation comes back with stuttering economy. Today the US government publishes the inflation data for February.
The inflation should go down again: A decline in the annual rate from 3 to 2.9 percent forecast economists on average, such as Morningstar.com reports. Core inflation without food and energy should also withdraw somewhat in February, from 3.3 to 3.2 percent.
The price drivers in January – Trump’s leaking customs policy irritated
Had services including rents In the previous month of January With 4.3 percent the largest proportion of rising consumer prices. In contrast, energy was only more moderate (plus 1 percent). Food overall increased by 2.5 percent, gastronomy by 3.4 percent.
Uncertainty – that is the feeling of the hour. The back and forth in the imported tariffs, but also business bosses, As a FED survey shows. Analysts guessthat Trump’s customs policy already fueled inflation that price increases in the supply chains (China) are already noticeable.
Deflation in goods disappears-the US economic engine stuttered
“There is great confusion and the uncertainty itself has driven up the pressure to inflate,” says Jose Torres from Interactive Brokers. In addition, the price drop in goods. With a total rate of 3 percent and 3.3 percent core inflation, Torres is more pessimistic than consensus.
Data has shown since the beginning of the year: The economic dynamics of the USA gets cracks. Last Friday the Unemployment rate Slightly to 4.1 percent, the job increase remained below the forecasts with 151,000. At the same time, consumption, housing construction and mood are paralyzed by consumers.
Forecast: inflation in 2025 – ghost of stagflation
However, the inflation prospects for 2025 are currently correcting analysts. This is how folk farmers calculate Morgan Stanley Research Now not with 2.3 percent, but with 2.5 percent inflation for the year as a whole. You can see the core rate without energy and food at 2.7 percent (previously 2.5).
In the current mixture, the word “stagflation” makes the round – mostly with additives such as “toxic”, or “frightened”. What is meant is an increasing inflation despite the economic weakness or even recession. That would be a binding for the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy.
Powell: Fed is well positioned – forecast of the Fedwatch Tools
The FED is currently driving a politician policy, Has the key interest rate in January left at 4.25 to 4.5 percent. Employment and inflation are almost in balance, it was said in the statement. “We don’t have to hurry up and are well positioned”, Fed President Jerome Powell Last week.
The markets have little doubt that the Fed keeps interest rates stable. Loud Fedwatch tool of the CME the likelihood of a interest in interest on March 19 is only 3 percent. For the May meeting, the chance of a further interest break is 56.5 percent. (As of March 11, 4.30 p.m. CET)