The US consumers expect more inflation. (Photo: Freepik, Splitov27)
Washington – Inflationpessimism spreads in the United States. Can the price list be foreseeable under 2 percent, as it was almost the rule before Corona? Today the US government publishes the data for January. December inflation was 2.9 percent in the year.
The forecasts are inconsistent: while the survey By Dow Jones and Wall Street Journal expected a decline to 2.8 percent, calculates fact set With a stagnation at 2.9 percent. The core rate without energy and food both predict at 3.1 percent (minus 0.1 percent).
While energy prices fluctuate, the costs for services in the USA have been more expensive for months – in December by 4.4 percent in the 12-month comparison. In the last month of 2024, prices for gas (plus 4.9 percent) and living (plus 4.6 percent) also rose very strongly.
Consumers fear increase – upward risks by tariffs
The US consumers see price development pessimistic. Loud Survey of the University of Michigan If the inflation expectation in the population is high in a month from 3.3 to 4.3 percent in 2025. The consumer mood and the income expectation is sagged accordingly.
No wonder, since the customs policy of the new U-President among experts is the driving force for rising prices. Paradoxes: Dissatisfaction with inflation also helped Trump to win the election. Deutsche Bank estimatesthat the announced tariffs make up 2 percent inflation.
Labor market with strong wage growth – interest reel 2024
But also a strong wage growth With recently 4.1 percent in the year comparison and dynamic job growth in the past few months, pressure on consumer prices continues to have been put on. There are signals for cooling on the job market, such as the enormous decline in the vacancies in January.
When US inflation as a result of the Russian robbery on Ukraine shot over 9 percent, the US Federal Reserve intervened with a series of interest rouses. The inflation then cooled down, so that the Fed lowered interest in the 2nd half 2024 – by a total of 1 percent.
Fed keeps Leist zins stable-interest forecast according to Reuters survey
Then the interest break at the end of January: The US currency keepers Leave the key interest rate at 425 to 450 basis points. The risks to achieve employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. For 2025, the Fed decision-makers forecast 2 interest rate cuts in December.
Or has the FED already said goodbye to the interest reduction cycle? In any case, skepticism in economists is growing, as a Reuters survey shows. After all, 16 percent no longer expect interest reduction at all in 2025. 2 thirds expect at least one cut in the 1st half of 2025.
Decline through statistical effects – forecast of the Fedwatch Tools
Even if inflation should decrease in the first few months of 2025, warns Josh Hirt from the Finanzhaus Vanguard for caution. Because the reason for such a relaxation could be basic effects in which high inflation values make today’s data appear weaker.
The markets see it similarly: that Fedwatch Tool of the CME The chance of a interest rate reduction on March 19 only puts the chance to 6.5 percent. 73.8 percent is likely that the interest rates are even after the session on May 7, as is currently the case with 425 to 450 basis points. (As of February 11, 3:30 p.m. CET)