Does the sporting event have an impact on the stock exchange? (Ki Photo: FreePik, Nuraghies)
On February 10, 2025 shortly after midnight (CET), the Kansas City Chiefs meet the Philadelphia Eagles – a game that not only makes the hearts of football fans beat faster, but also ensures amusing conversation in financial circles.
Because somewhere between jubilee calls and commercials, the curious theory of the Superbowl indicator has been circulating for decades, according to which the outcome of the game should predict the development of stock markets the following year. But what is behind this phenomenon and how seriously it is to take?
What is the Superbowl indicator?
The Superbowl indicator is a theory that says that the victory of a team from the National Football Conference (NFC) predicts a bull year for the stock markets, while the triumph of the American Football Conference (AFC) indicates a bear market.
This phenomenon goes back to the late 1970s when the New York sports journalist Leonard Koppett found for the New York Times that in the first years after the Super Bowl victory of certain teams, the stock markets tended to be surprisingly often in one direction or another .
Today, with the global networking of the markets and the complexity of modern financial systems, this apparently amusing connection is increasingly losing scientific meaning – but is still a topic of conversation on the Coffee Tables of Wall Street.
Like a journalist, a legendary stock market curiosity created
Koppett already recognized in the 1970s that in the years in which the NFC won, the stock markets tend to be cut significantly better than in the years in which the AFC won, and that it is a statistical connection between the outcome of the Super Bowl and The subsequent development of the S&P 500 gave: Instead of the expected random probability of 50 percent, his forecast made in around 75 percent of the cases. With a smile, he speculated that football results could serve as a kind of economic barometer.
Today, however, we know that correlation is not the same as causality – the apparent connection between football and stock exchange is mainly based on coincidences and rather reflects the current mood of investors as fundamental economic trends.
Super Bowl 2025: An event with a double effect?
While the teams compete on the field in New Orleans – the 59. Super Bowl takes place in the legendary Caesar’s superdome-the eyes of the investors in many places are also aimed at the curious forecasts of the Super Bowl indicator. The coming weekend not only marks the highlight of the NFL season, but also a moment when the pulse of the stock market world briefly held.
With the kickoff at 6.30 p.m. ET (corresponds to around 0.30 a.m. German time on the following day), the evening will be cross-school: football fans celebrate the sporting competition, while financial analysts are discussed behind the scenes of chiefs or the Eagles is actually an indicator could be for market development. However, investors should take one to heart: investment decisions should always be based on well -founded, fact -based analyzes – and not on the result of a football game.
Conclusion: an amusing curiosity, but not a guide
The Superbowl indicator remains a charming, albeit somewhat dismissed financial science curiosity. Even if there have been statistical correlations that indicated a certain hit rate in the past, one has to remain realistic today – especially in 2025 -: the financial world is too complex to reliably predict the development of global markets.
Investors should therefore use the Super Bowl indicator with a smile for entertainment, but their decisions on solid, diversified analyzes and Proven strategies support.
Disclaimer:
No investment advice. No call to buy or sell securities.