The number of vacancies dropped at the end of December. (Photo: Freepik, rawpixel.com)
Washington-New Trump decrees every day-the job market is not spared. The deportation of migrants can have an impact there as well as the job cancellation in authorities. This promises more uncertainty for the already volatile nonfarm Payerrolls of the US government-today the January data comes from the US labor market.
170,000 new jobs outside of agriculture – that expect economists according to the fact setafter the December statistics reported enormous 256,000 additional jobs. According to the estimate, the unemployment rate should remain stable at 4.1 percent that wage growth decrease to 3.8 percent.
Different analyst opinions-revision of the benchmarks
However: Some analysts From renowned financial houses, stronger job growth expect the consensus forecast. Goldman Sachs and Interactive Brokers are based on 190,000 new jobs in January, the Bank of America even 200,000.
Important to know that in January the Bureau of Labor Statistics undertook labor market statistics an annual revision. The new adjustment can also change the job growth reported in 2024. Some expect a far weaker picture of the US working market than previously thought.
ADP job report exceeds forecast-boom in the consumer sector
Unexpectedly strong job increases reported on Wednesday The ADP report. 183,000 new jobs in January in the private sector showed the evaluation of the wage service provider ADP – folk hosts only expected 150,000. Wages rose with an annual rate of 4.7 percent (previous month: 4.6 percent).
“We had a strong start to 2025,” commented ADP chief chief host Nela Richardson. However, consumer-oriented industries in particular have hired new employees, while job growth for B2B service providers and in production was weaker.
US inflation in upward mode-fewer vacancies
The robust job market fits Inflation increase in December From 2.7 to 2.9 percent in the annual comparison of the Consumer Price Index. Also the other important one US price index PCE recorded an increase in inflation, he climbed from 2.4 to 2.6 percent in December.
On the other hand, the trend indicates In the open spots Rather to cool off the economy and the labor market: The government statistics surprised on Tuesday with a decline from 8.09 to 7.6 million vacancies at the end of 2024. Experts had predicted a value of around 8 million.
Trump risks for the US economy-Zin break of the Fed
Donald Trump’s plans are also likely to influence job statistics, after all, the US President plans layoffs among the federal authorities. The public sector is likely to be a job engine. The announced Trump-Zölle are considered inflation drivers and also as an economic risk.
Given this mixture The Fed kept calm last week And the interest on the level of 425 to 450 basis points kept stable. In the 2nd half of 2024, the US currency keepers around President Jerome Powell reduced interest rates 3 times a total of 1 percent.
FED-Vice: We are not in a hurry-forecast of the Fedwatch Tools
“I don’t think we are in a hurry to change our attitude”, the deputy fed boss Philip Jefferson said on Tuesday. “As long as the economy and the labor market remain strong, he believes that the US Federal Reserve is careful when the interest is adapted.
The bets on the markets are correspondingly defensive. The chance of a interest rate reduction by 0.25 percent at the next meeting on March 19 Fedwatch tool only to 14.5 percent. And also for May 7, the probability is only 37.7 percent that after the interest session of the interest, the current level of 425 to 450 basis points is. (As of February 6, 2:30 p.m. CET)